News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon

Seattle Seahawks beat Minnesota Vikings (?)

Football fans, the Seahawks are bringing Seattle’s best. With the Vikings’ tenacity, they will not be Minnesota nice. The December 2 Monday Night Football (MNF) could be very entertaining. These intraconference contenders are well-matched, with the score being:

Seattle Seahawks ... 27 points

Minnesota Vikings ... 20 points

This is how this prediction came about.

The 2013-2018 seasons for each team were analyzed. During these years, the Seahawks have been consistently winning games. Their winning system is ingrained.

Factors contributing to this consistency are Coach Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson being together for eight seasons. Since Wilson joined the Seahawks in 2012, their winning percentage is 68 percent. Of course, many big games, including Super Bowl appearances, were played over that time. In this season, QB Wilson is in contention for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. So, they have had the test of fire – achieving huge results!

Coach Mike Zimmer became the Vikings’ head coach in 2014. He has had extensive experience as a defensive coordinator for several NFL teams. He is innovative and a proven strategist. Offensively, his teams improved in 2018 – and his teams are now scoring more points than pre-2018 seasons.

In 2018, the Vikings acquired highly paid quarterback Kirk Cousins. Veteran Cousins has helped the Vikes score more points consistently, too. Of note, since Game 5 of this season, Cousins’ performance is impressively gaining steam.

In football, the importance and chemistry between coach and quarterback are key. This is well known and coach/quarterback duos are legendary.

In this MNF game, this will be extremely important. Particularly since both teams are statistically extremely similar.

Historically, the Seahawks have a 65 percent probability of winning with points scored in the 11- to 32-point bracket.

Points Scored: 0 to 10 (Win Probability: 0%); 11 to 32 (Win Probability: 65%); 33 and more (Win Probability: 100%).

About 70 percent of 2013-2018 games (96 regular-season games) have scores in the 11- to 32-point bracket. This is the battleground zone.

Clearly, in the 11- to 21-point bracket, the Seahawks have a much bigger chance of winning (65 percent) as compared to the Vikings (42 percent). Over the years, the Vikings had lost 23 of 26 games (88 percent) when scoring 15 or fewer points.

The 22- to 32-point bracket is similar for both teams. Only 7 percent separates them. Additionally, the same is true for the 33-plus point bracket. I am considering these brackets as “statistically insignificant.”

So, what does this mean?

In the chart, the only bracket where one team has a clear advantage is in the 11- to 21-point bracket. Seattle would be victorious more often than the Vikings when scoring points in this bracket.

Therefore, since the 2013-2018 statistics do not prove insight, the prediction has to be based more on each team’s current season performance.

Below is Seattle’s 2019-2020 scoring performance, along with corresponding outcomes. A blue diamond is a win, a red dot is a loss.

All points are in the 65 percent range, bordered by dashed lines. No “guaranteed” wins or losses — with percentages of 100 percent in the above table — have yet occurred this season.

As of November 25, the Seahawks have 9 wins and 2 losses (82 percent). Therefore, the overall winning percentage is 82 percent. A very good season – thus far.

In the Seahawks game #6, at home against the Baltimore Ravens, they only scored 16 points (loss). In an impressive eight of 11 (72 percent) games, 27 points or more were scored. Seattle averages 26.5 points per game.

The Vikings’ 2019-2020 season is 8 wins and 3 losses (72 percent). Average scored points per game is 26.2, slightly lower than the Seahawks. The last four games were averaging 24 points, including a loss to the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.

The Vikings’ inconsistent point production could be their Achilles heel on December 2.

Although extensive historical analysis was performed, the only statistical difference was in the 11- to 21-points bracket. Again, favoring the Seahawks. The 2019-2020 season points per game slightly benefit Seattle (26.5) over Minnesota (26.2).

The prediction, in part, was based on non-statistical elements. For instance, Seattle’s close coach/quarterback relationship favoring Seattle. The loud (up to 137.6 decibels), rumpus Seattle fans. The famous Twelfth Man/Woman is a big factor within Seattle’s arsenal. For instance, causing offensive movement and resulting penalties.

Potential sluggishness off a bye goes against the Vikings. The Vikings’ scoring variation is of concern.

Time will tell!

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